According to the latest market data and analysis as of February 26, 2025, the recent aluminum price has shown the following changes and influencing factors:
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### **I. Domestic Aluminum Price Performance**
1. **Futures Market**
- The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20,500 yuan per ton on February 26, down 0.75% from the previous day, but still within the high-oscillation range (20,300 - 21,100 yuan per ton).
- Domestic aluminum ingot inventories have continued to accumulate. As of February 24, aluminum ingot inventories reached 880,000 tons, and aluminum bar inventories were 334,500 tons, both exceeding the levels of the same period in previous years, exerting short-term pressure on aluminum prices.
2. **Spot Market**
- On February 26th, China Hongqiao Group quoted A00 aluminum at 20,670 yuan per ton, an increase of 140 yuan per ton compared to the previous day.
- The average price of aluminum plates on the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Exchange was 20,530 yuan per ton, up 130 yuan per ton from the previous day. Among them, the prices of aluminum alloy plates generally rose by 130 yuan per ton.
- However, the spot prices of aluminum ingots in some regions showed a divergence. For instance, the price of scrap aluminum in Foshan remained stable, with the tax-exclusive price of broken and used aluminum ranging from 16,550 to 16,750 yuan per ton.
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### **II. Dynamics of International Aluminum Prices**
1. **LME Aluminum Prices**
- The aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has been highly volatile recently. On February 14th, it was reported at $2,618 per ton, marking a decline for two consecutive days, mainly due to the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and market sentiment.
- The current LME aluminum inventory stands at 531,025 tons, a decrease of 4,875 tons compared to the previous day, indicating a slight easing of supply-side pressure.
2. **International Institution Forecasts**
- Bank of America Securities predicts that the aluminum price could reach $3,000 per ton in 2025 due to the tightening of the global aluminum market supply, with an expected shortage of 608,000 tons in 2025.
- The potential trend of Russia resuming aluminum exports to the United States is also regarded as an important risk factor for future price fluctuations.
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### **III. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors**
1. **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**
- **Supply Side**: The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is approximately 43.51 million tons, with an industry operating rate of 95.2%, maintaining a high supply level; the price of alumina fluctuates, providing limited cost support.
- **Demand Side**: The retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market increased by 23% year-on-year, but the consumption of traditional fuel vehicles remains sluggish, and the recovery of aluminum consumption is not yet significant.
2. **Policies and International Trade**
- The policy of the United States to impose tariffs on aluminum imports remains uncertain, which may reshape the global trade pattern.
- The domestic "dual carbon" policy and the demand from the new energy industry provide long-term support for aluminum prices.
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### **IV. Outlook on Future Trends**
- **Short-term**: Domestic inventory build-up pressure and the pace of consumption recovery will dominate the volatility of aluminum prices. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum will operate within the range of 20,300 to 21,100 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum price will be around 2,600 to 2,720 US dollars/ton.
- **Medium to Long-term**: The global supply shortage expectation, the growth in demand from new energy, and the decline in inventory may drive aluminum prices upward. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of overseas policy disruptions and macroeconomic fluctuations.
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### **V. Market Sentiment and Capital Response**
- Shares of aluminum companies performed strongly. On February 26th, Yongmao Tai and Liyuan Co., Ltd. both reached their daily price limit, reflecting the market's expectation of a medium- to long-term increase in aluminum prices.
- Leading companies such as Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) have forecasted increased profits, further strengthening industry confidence.